Indian economy has been booming in the metros for last four to five years because of the enhanced purchasing power of the urban population. IT and BPO employees are among the highest earners in the urban areas. They are young and many of them are single, they can spend as much as they want. They are buying the most expensive electronics gadgets and having Apple product as their status symbols. But this might change in the coming years, at least temporarily.
There is slow down in the IT sector and many of the Indian IT companies, including big and medium sized, have almost freeze their recruitment process. There might be some job postings on the employment portals and the companies’ website but there is doubt the companies are looking for employees actively. Important thing is “actively”. The companies are not following the employees available in the market as they used a few months back. HR managers are looking for the best available talent for the low price.
There has been some news that some of the companies have also started layoff in the IT sector. It is difficult to say these are because of the slowdown in US economy or crisis in the financial sector or just restricting in the companies. As usual, the redundant and low performing staff will be axed out of the companies to make the companies slimmer and more efficient.
I do not see any major problem for the performing current employees in the IT sector. Major problem is for the people who are coming out of the university now or in near future. They will find it difficult to get break into IT sector. Situation is something similar to what it was after the bust of Y2K bubble. It is even true for the people with a number of years of experience and went for higher studies for one or two years. They need to use their contacts and good will with the friends to get something at this moment.
My advice is if you are working for any company, look for the financial strength of the company and the performance of its clients. If the clients are from finance sector you might be in the wrong company. Do not try to switch company at this moment because your employer of one year might not make you redundant with the same ease as a new employer of one month might make.
It is also good time to go to university for higher education for one to two years. Chances are by the time you will come out of the university, market will be in better shape and you might be able to get better roles in companies’ of your choice when you are equipped with higher education.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Sunday, September 21, 2008
How to do Activity Duration estimation
After identifying the resources available for the activities of the project, the project manager can estimate how much time the activity will take to complete. The project manager can take the help of the resource calendar, resource requirement and other existing company processes. The estimator needs to be giving as much as information as possible to get a realist estimation to complete the activity.
Following methods are used to estimate the duration an activity might take.
One-Time estimating: This kind of estimation is based on expert judgement of estimator. This estimate is best when it is made by the resource who will work on the activity. Estimator looks at the historic performance on similar activities and makes her judgement.
One of the biggest problems with this estimation is the estimator estimates some duration for the activity and then adds some buffer time to be on the safe time. This can hurt the reputation of the project manager if the planned activities are completed much before the time. Since the estimations are made by an expert or the boss in many cases, there is no buy-in from the project team. This might impact the performance of the team and they might miss the baselines for the activity.
Analogous estimating: It is top-down approach and very similar to expert judgement but the estimate is derived from the duration for the similar activities or the projects. Though ideally this approach can be used for activities and project both, practice is to use for the project by senior management or the project sponsor. It is the responsibility of the project manager to estimate duration for the activities using some sound techniques.
Parametric estimating: when exact information for the activity is not available, the project managers can use regression analysis and learning curve methods to estimate duration for the activities. In regression analysis two variables are plotted on the scattered graph and their relationship is derived using mathematical modelling. Learning curve method says that any resource will take less time than she took last time to finish a similar activity.
Heuristics: It is just a rule of thumb. After working on large number of similar activities, one knows how much time it takes for a similar activity to complete. This can be derived from the results of the parametric estimation.
Three point estimation: This method believes that there is very small probability that a project will be completed on a given date estimated in the beginning of the project. This method takes into account the most likely cases of finishing a project. The project manager can come up with best, worse and most likely duration for finishing an activity. A simple average of these estimates can be used as best estimate for the activity. The project manager can also use more complex weighted mathematical formula to derive duration for any activity.
Following methods are used to estimate the duration an activity might take.
One-Time estimating: This kind of estimation is based on expert judgement of estimator. This estimate is best when it is made by the resource who will work on the activity. Estimator looks at the historic performance on similar activities and makes her judgement.
One of the biggest problems with this estimation is the estimator estimates some duration for the activity and then adds some buffer time to be on the safe time. This can hurt the reputation of the project manager if the planned activities are completed much before the time. Since the estimations are made by an expert or the boss in many cases, there is no buy-in from the project team. This might impact the performance of the team and they might miss the baselines for the activity.
Analogous estimating: It is top-down approach and very similar to expert judgement but the estimate is derived from the duration for the similar activities or the projects. Though ideally this approach can be used for activities and project both, practice is to use for the project by senior management or the project sponsor. It is the responsibility of the project manager to estimate duration for the activities using some sound techniques.
Parametric estimating: when exact information for the activity is not available, the project managers can use regression analysis and learning curve methods to estimate duration for the activities. In regression analysis two variables are plotted on the scattered graph and their relationship is derived using mathematical modelling. Learning curve method says that any resource will take less time than she took last time to finish a similar activity.
Heuristics: It is just a rule of thumb. After working on large number of similar activities, one knows how much time it takes for a similar activity to complete. This can be derived from the results of the parametric estimation.
Three point estimation: This method believes that there is very small probability that a project will be completed on a given date estimated in the beginning of the project. This method takes into account the most likely cases of finishing a project. The project manager can come up with best, worse and most likely duration for finishing an activity. A simple average of these estimates can be used as best estimate for the activity. The project manager can also use more complex weighted mathematical formula to derive duration for any activity.
How to do Activity resource estimation
This is important to remember that the project manager need to first define the work packages and identify the activities and then to identify the resources. Project cannot be planned based on what the resources are available but they need to be estimated and brought together to complete the project. Resources can be material, machinery or the human. It is very important that the resources are estimated and controlled very carefully otherwise they might be allocated to other projects when they are needed for your project.
Project manager need to review the availability of the resources and decide the duration and quantify the requirement of the resources for the project. Similar resources should be put together so that they can be managed and shifted internally as the need of the project may be.
Project manager need to review the availability of the resources and decide the duration and quantify the requirement of the resources for the project. Similar resources should be put together so that they can be managed and shifted internally as the need of the project may be.
Milestones of a Project Management Plan
Any event that is important for a project can be marked as milestone in a project management plan. Milestones help the project managers in tracking the progress of the project at some intermediate points. These events work as check points for the project management plan. These can be measured against the baselines for the time, cost and quality. This helps the project manager in controlling the project. If there is any variance from the baselines, some corrective actions need to be taken to control the project and bring it back to align with the original plan. If the variance is too large and the project cannot meet the initial set baselines even after the corrective actions then the project manager should update the other stakeholders and take their buy-in for making other changes to the agreed project management plan.
Some of the milestones can be imposed by the project sponsor or the other external stakeholders and those are to be met to satisfy the requirements and the needs of the stakeholders.
Some of the milestones can be imposed by the project sponsor or the other external stakeholders and those are to be met to satisfy the requirements and the needs of the stakeholders.
Time Management : Arrow Diagramming Method or Activity on Arrow
Time management: Arrow diagramming method (PDM) or activity-on-arrow (AOA)
This is a tool to draw network diagram for the time management in project management. In this method activities are represented by the arrows and the nodes represent the dependencies between the activities. This kind of diagramming method can only represent finish-to-start kind of dependency. This method also uses dummy activities to show the dependencies between the activities. These activities are shown using dotted lines in the network diagram.
This can be represented by writing the activity name over the arrow.
This is a tool to draw network diagram for the time management in project management. In this method activities are represented by the arrows and the nodes represent the dependencies between the activities. This kind of diagramming method can only represent finish-to-start kind of dependency. This method also uses dummy activities to show the dependencies between the activities. These activities are shown using dotted lines in the network diagram.
This can be represented by writing the activity name over the arrow.
Time Management : Precedence Diagram Method or Activity on Node
Time management: Precedence diagramming method (PDM) or activity-on-node (AON)
This is a tool to draw network diagram for the time management in project management. In this method activities are placed at the nodes and arrows are used to show the dependence of the activities. Activities can have four types of dependencies discussed below
Finish-to-start: An activity must finish before the next activity can start. This is the most common form of dependence. E.g. you must construct building before you can start the painting of the walls.
Start-to-start: An activity must start before the next activity can start. E.g. you must start the design before you can start coding for the software.
Finish-to-finish: An activity must finish before the next activity can finish. E.g. testing of the software should finish before the finish of the documentation or the installation of the software.
Start-to-finish: An activity must start before the next activity can finish. This kind of dependency is not common. E.g. ignition of the explosive should start before the old building can be collapsed using explosive.
Activities can be sequenced using any of the following kind of the dependencies
Mandatory dependency: These are the dependencies that are inherent in the nature of the work or are required by the contract of the work.
Preferential dependency: These are the dependencies set by the project manager. These can be changed by the project manager if there are change request for any reason from any of the stakeholder of the project. This gives freedom to the project manager to crash the schedule of the project.
External dependency: These are the dependencies set by the stakeholders or the government and have to be met by the project manager to satisfy the requirements of the projects.
This is a tool to draw network diagram for the time management in project management. In this method activities are placed at the nodes and arrows are used to show the dependence of the activities. Activities can have four types of dependencies discussed below
Finish-to-start: An activity must finish before the next activity can start. This is the most common form of dependence. E.g. you must construct building before you can start the painting of the walls.
Start-to-start: An activity must start before the next activity can start. E.g. you must start the design before you can start coding for the software.
Finish-to-finish: An activity must finish before the next activity can finish. E.g. testing of the software should finish before the finish of the documentation or the installation of the software.
Start-to-finish: An activity must start before the next activity can finish. This kind of dependency is not common. E.g. ignition of the explosive should start before the old building can be collapsed using explosive.
Activities can be sequenced using any of the following kind of the dependencies
Mandatory dependency: These are the dependencies that are inherent in the nature of the work or are required by the contract of the work.
Preferential dependency: These are the dependencies set by the project manager. These can be changed by the project manager if there are change request for any reason from any of the stakeholder of the project. This gives freedom to the project manager to crash the schedule of the project.
External dependency: These are the dependencies set by the stakeholders or the government and have to be met by the project manager to satisfy the requirements of the projects.
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