We see lots of reports and analysis based on the survey results of industry and common people. They seems to give a great insight into the issue being faced by the audience and through a light on the possible solution for the same. But I doubt they can help anyone if the questions are being framed by novice or with some prejudice in mind. I discuss this one example that we are forced to discuss every year around this time.
Every year before the nomination for Oscar, almost all media channels in India start asking question from the audiences and viewer, "Can an Indian film win Oscar without foreign connection?" and then the possible options for answer given are "YES" and "NO". Sometime the third option is "Can no say". Anyway the third category does not matter much for the populist media. I think this is a question that can not be answered by the survey and on top of that the question being asked is irrelevant and misleading.
No doubt that the Oscar award carries lot of prestige in the international market but we should not forget that we do not compete in the award for the mainstream movies. We compete in the foreign movies category. Then our movie analyst start comparing the Indian nomination to the mainstream movies. The comparison is completely baseless. The movies that win the foreign movie category are generally very good in quality and content and most of the time Indian entry to the Oscar is based on the earning of the movie or the popularity of the actor in the movie. And most of the time bias is for Bollywood movies, or to say Hindi movies. These movies have much larger audience base in the country but I seriously doubt that they produce the best movies in the country.
The point I was trying to make with the example was that the survey can only help if the questions asked are being framed by who understands the problem and being asked in the right context. Just asking any question will give some answer that will be irrelevant and misleading. We should be careful in using the results from survey because otherwise we might feel embarrassed if being caught by someone who understand the context better than us.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Is Satyam's Ramalinga Raju's fraud part of Indian industry practices?
For last 10-15 years, in India IT industry was talked about as very transparent industry. It was considered one of the industry where people were getting rewards for their sheer hard work and IQ rather than their caste or any other social status. Mr. Raju has broken that myth. Yes, I repeat Myth.
For some unknown reason, he admitted to all the wrongdoing before he got caught. But one thing is surprising that he has admitted that he singlehandedly did all the frauds for several years. This is difficult to believe that the chairman of the company can do fraud of this scale. First, I doubt that the chairman of the company as big as Satyam was will personally involve in the work of preparing accounts for the company. It was not only creative accounting that can be asked from the accountants and they will do it but it was fraud and the accountants or some people in the Finance department of the company must be involved in this fraud. Satyam was listed in USA and it is difficult to make analyst fool if the accounting is not done properly or anything is left improper. Fraud of this magnitude needs proper coordination between different people inside the company. Second why at all he will admit fraud and get caught when it is sure he will not ever come out of jail now. He had many other options. He could have sold his shares in the company couple of months back or a year and come clean. I feel there is bigger story is behind this scam but I doubt we, as outsiders, ever know anything about the real story. We will have to believe whatever stories we get through media speculation.
One other thing that is talked about the IT industry is that it is free from government control. Probably it is free to larger extent. But there is direct link between the politicians and the IT company heads. There is big money in building IT parks for everyone including politicians through builders. IT companies get many incentives from the government for operating in different states. Why an Indian politician not ask for his/her share out of the incentives given to IT companies? It is difficult to answer this question. We have die hard corrupt politicians, I can not believe they will do anything without getting commission.
Many bureaucrates manage to get good jobs for their sons/daughters in the companies including IT. There is good salary and social status when sons/daughters work in USA or Europe or Australia for IT companies. Bureaucrates are happy with this.
IT companies are like any other companies and are made same people so expecting these companies to be much different from any other Indian company is childish behavior. Only difference is these companies have shiny buildings. and we Indians love shiny and white color. Be it bride or the building.
For some unknown reason, he admitted to all the wrongdoing before he got caught. But one thing is surprising that he has admitted that he singlehandedly did all the frauds for several years. This is difficult to believe that the chairman of the company can do fraud of this scale. First, I doubt that the chairman of the company as big as Satyam was will personally involve in the work of preparing accounts for the company. It was not only creative accounting that can be asked from the accountants and they will do it but it was fraud and the accountants or some people in the Finance department of the company must be involved in this fraud. Satyam was listed in USA and it is difficult to make analyst fool if the accounting is not done properly or anything is left improper. Fraud of this magnitude needs proper coordination between different people inside the company. Second why at all he will admit fraud and get caught when it is sure he will not ever come out of jail now. He had many other options. He could have sold his shares in the company couple of months back or a year and come clean. I feel there is bigger story is behind this scam but I doubt we, as outsiders, ever know anything about the real story. We will have to believe whatever stories we get through media speculation.
One other thing that is talked about the IT industry is that it is free from government control. Probably it is free to larger extent. But there is direct link between the politicians and the IT company heads. There is big money in building IT parks for everyone including politicians through builders. IT companies get many incentives from the government for operating in different states. Why an Indian politician not ask for his/her share out of the incentives given to IT companies? It is difficult to answer this question. We have die hard corrupt politicians, I can not believe they will do anything without getting commission.
Many bureaucrates manage to get good jobs for their sons/daughters in the companies including IT. There is good salary and social status when sons/daughters work in USA or Europe or Australia for IT companies. Bureaucrates are happy with this.
IT companies are like any other companies and are made same people so expecting these companies to be much different from any other Indian company is childish behavior. Only difference is these companies have shiny buildings. and we Indians love shiny and white color. Be it bride or the building.
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
IT job loss at satyam and other Indian companies
This was the news no one was expecting from any Indian companies. Everyone was aware that the recruitement was at its lowest or practically non-existence in the Indian IT sector for last six months but all of a sudden future of over 50,000 employees in IT will come to an practical end was unimaginable.
Well, there has no been any formal announcement of job losses at the company but it is anyone guess what will happen to the workforce when they do not have senior management in place and I am sure most of the customers will cancel their projects with a company involved in huge financial frauds. Client will also give much more credibility to the allegation by the World bank about the irregularities in the invoices from Satyam computers.
As such the software companies have no assets of any value. They run on knowledge of the employees and trust from their customers. Though the employees will have very little option to go elsewhere because other companies are not recruiting anyway. But the customers have option to run away from the company.
Some of the most talented executives will still be able to find jobs in Infosys, Wipro and TCS and this will reduce the chance of Satyam computers to compete with these rivals. Good enough, average and below average employees will be one who will be left on bench for some time in the company. As the share price have gone down drastically and it is no more listed on NSE, the company will find extremly hard to arrange for the cash to pay the salaries.
I can only wish good luck to the employees of the Satyam computers. Poor chaps decided to become IT champions and earn good bucks but will have really hard time.
Well, there has no been any formal announcement of job losses at the company but it is anyone guess what will happen to the workforce when they do not have senior management in place and I am sure most of the customers will cancel their projects with a company involved in huge financial frauds. Client will also give much more credibility to the allegation by the World bank about the irregularities in the invoices from Satyam computers.
As such the software companies have no assets of any value. They run on knowledge of the employees and trust from their customers. Though the employees will have very little option to go elsewhere because other companies are not recruiting anyway. But the customers have option to run away from the company.
Some of the most talented executives will still be able to find jobs in Infosys, Wipro and TCS and this will reduce the chance of Satyam computers to compete with these rivals. Good enough, average and below average employees will be one who will be left on bench for some time in the company. As the share price have gone down drastically and it is no more listed on NSE, the company will find extremly hard to arrange for the cash to pay the salaries.
I can only wish good luck to the employees of the Satyam computers. Poor chaps decided to become IT champions and earn good bucks but will have really hard time.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Impact of recession on Indian companies
Worldwide this is an accepted fact now that the world economy is facing biggest recession in decades. But Indian politicians are reluctant to admit this fact for Indian economy. Even Indian companies are not much talking about recession and keeping the bad news of lower profits or revenue away from the media. Or the media is not willing to highlight the issue of job losses in Indian. There might be political reasons to do so or just they are taking the role of populist (and not popular) media and talking about bollywood or Pakistan.
It is true that Indian economy is still not much dependent on export. It is still driven by domestic consumption. Though we can not forget the fact that the whole India shining or 9% growth was driven by a very small fraction of next generation. This urban population did not had much money, though their earnings were much more than their parents, but they had a dream to sell to the banks to get a loan. Banks were happy to lend to someone who was earning in 6-7 digit every year. Economy was running on debt from the banks.
To see the impact of this unmanaged growth, one need to visit any town that has got IT industry in recent past. One can see the vast change on the speed of the private transport. A town with small roads will have almost empty roads before the arrival of IT industry but after the arrival there will not be any space on the streets. If someone goes to Noida-Delhi or Delhi-Gurgaon highways in the peak hours then s/he will realize how many cars have been bought by these young IT professionals. They helped the auto industry for last couple of years. But the time has changed now. It is not people have lost their jobs, but people will not be willing to buy new cars any more.
One should not forget that the developed world where we were exporting, whatever limit we export, has been hit hard. When I say hard, I mean it. Consumers are buying but only what is necessary for survival otherwise the spending has almost dried up. In this scenario, I doubt companies can expect to get any, if at all, contracts for non-essential items. Indian companies might not resolve to fire employees, because this is not Indian culture, but I doubt there will be any salary rise or new recruitement.
I am optimistic that none of the known big company will go bankrupt. We will not hear that companies are going into administration but the overall mood will be low and the companies will not make much profit after tax.
So far so good. Indian economy is safer. But if the recession prolonged then the remitance by the NRIs diaspora will also go down that will drastically reduce the consumption in India. Lets hope this does not happen.
It is true that Indian economy is still not much dependent on export. It is still driven by domestic consumption. Though we can not forget the fact that the whole India shining or 9% growth was driven by a very small fraction of next generation. This urban population did not had much money, though their earnings were much more than their parents, but they had a dream to sell to the banks to get a loan. Banks were happy to lend to someone who was earning in 6-7 digit every year. Economy was running on debt from the banks.
To see the impact of this unmanaged growth, one need to visit any town that has got IT industry in recent past. One can see the vast change on the speed of the private transport. A town with small roads will have almost empty roads before the arrival of IT industry but after the arrival there will not be any space on the streets. If someone goes to Noida-Delhi or Delhi-Gurgaon highways in the peak hours then s/he will realize how many cars have been bought by these young IT professionals. They helped the auto industry for last couple of years. But the time has changed now. It is not people have lost their jobs, but people will not be willing to buy new cars any more.
One should not forget that the developed world where we were exporting, whatever limit we export, has been hit hard. When I say hard, I mean it. Consumers are buying but only what is necessary for survival otherwise the spending has almost dried up. In this scenario, I doubt companies can expect to get any, if at all, contracts for non-essential items. Indian companies might not resolve to fire employees, because this is not Indian culture, but I doubt there will be any salary rise or new recruitement.
I am optimistic that none of the known big company will go bankrupt. We will not hear that companies are going into administration but the overall mood will be low and the companies will not make much profit after tax.
So far so good. Indian economy is safer. But if the recession prolonged then the remitance by the NRIs diaspora will also go down that will drastically reduce the consumption in India. Lets hope this does not happen.
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Terrorism in India and role of Indian politicians
India is suffering from terrorism for last three decades in one form or the other. Either in Panjab for Khalistan or in Kashmir or Assam. Terrorism is terrorism. But in the last couple of years it has reached all part of the country and there can be bomb blast anywhere anytime. It can be festival time for Hindus or muslims, it does not matter, there is no need of these things anymore.
Untill terrorist attack happened in Mumbai, everything was fine. We got so much used to the terror attacks and/or bomb blast in the middle of the busy cities that we were thinking it is part of life. Then a terrorist attack happened in Mumabi and everything changed. We started demanding for batter and safe society. We started demanding surgical attack on Pakistan. We started thinking like Israel and America. Our media became responsible. Politicians became alert and within a month a bill without much discussion was passed. A new agency, NIA, came into existence. It seems like all the problems are solved now. is it really so? I do not agree.
For 10-20 years, we have learn to blame Pakistan for every bomb blast in the country. It might be the case that Government of Pakistan is soft on terror and the ISI helps them but have we ever asked ourselves why this happen in our country. What have we done to stop them? Everyone knows our police is poorly paid and they do not have weapons and the intelligence to fight with the terrorism. What no one every ask these questions. Have we created a database of the Indian nationals? What have we done to safeguard ourselves? Nothing. 5-10-100 people dies every month as a result of bomb blast in some cities but we are happy because the bomb has not been planted in our backyard and we are safe. if a bomb blast happens in Assam or Kashmir or Karnatka, It is not our problem. It is the people of that state who will suffer. What can we do, this is the attitude of our people.
Last week there were serial bomb blast in Assam but it was not even a news. It was not as important as the blast in Mumbai. There was no statement from the home ministry. They did not even bother to blame Pakistan this time. Perhaps they have no time. Home minister might be busy calling his friends and relatives in America to see them next week because he is going to America to show the proof of involvement of Pakistan nationals. Why do we need to show proofs to America? Why US president need to call Indian Prime minister? Are we becoming part of American-led alliance against terror?
Why can we not talk directly with the ministers in Pakistani government? Why our politicians do all this drama? We can not attack Pakistan, we know that. In fact, we have no right to attack that country. We are weak internally, first we should be strong internally then only anything can happen. If we think politicians will do something for us then we are dreaming. People of the country will have to demand their rights, right to live safely and securely. If the demands are not fulfilled, they need to be ready for sacrifice and fight. Fight with against our own politicians and leaders and system and not Pakistan.
Untill terrorist attack happened in Mumbai, everything was fine. We got so much used to the terror attacks and/or bomb blast in the middle of the busy cities that we were thinking it is part of life. Then a terrorist attack happened in Mumabi and everything changed. We started demanding for batter and safe society. We started demanding surgical attack on Pakistan. We started thinking like Israel and America. Our media became responsible. Politicians became alert and within a month a bill without much discussion was passed. A new agency, NIA, came into existence. It seems like all the problems are solved now. is it really so? I do not agree.
For 10-20 years, we have learn to blame Pakistan for every bomb blast in the country. It might be the case that Government of Pakistan is soft on terror and the ISI helps them but have we ever asked ourselves why this happen in our country. What have we done to stop them? Everyone knows our police is poorly paid and they do not have weapons and the intelligence to fight with the terrorism. What no one every ask these questions. Have we created a database of the Indian nationals? What have we done to safeguard ourselves? Nothing. 5-10-100 people dies every month as a result of bomb blast in some cities but we are happy because the bomb has not been planted in our backyard and we are safe. if a bomb blast happens in Assam or Kashmir or Karnatka, It is not our problem. It is the people of that state who will suffer. What can we do, this is the attitude of our people.
Last week there were serial bomb blast in Assam but it was not even a news. It was not as important as the blast in Mumbai. There was no statement from the home ministry. They did not even bother to blame Pakistan this time. Perhaps they have no time. Home minister might be busy calling his friends and relatives in America to see them next week because he is going to America to show the proof of involvement of Pakistan nationals. Why do we need to show proofs to America? Why US president need to call Indian Prime minister? Are we becoming part of American-led alliance against terror?
Why can we not talk directly with the ministers in Pakistani government? Why our politicians do all this drama? We can not attack Pakistan, we know that. In fact, we have no right to attack that country. We are weak internally, first we should be strong internally then only anything can happen. If we think politicians will do something for us then we are dreaming. People of the country will have to demand their rights, right to live safely and securely. If the demands are not fulfilled, they need to be ready for sacrifice and fight. Fight with against our own politicians and leaders and system and not Pakistan.
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